7 changes that will be the legacy of COVID-19 for pharma, healthcare and life sciences
The unprecedented speed of change that the coronavirus has provoked makes it impossible to make accurate predictions. Much uncertainty remains, in relation to both epidemiology and global public health, not least:
When will the pandemic be contained?
What will be the impacts of mutation for transmission?
How long before the vaccine roll-out leads to normality?
How might the world prepare for a further outbreak?
How feasible is global immunisation?
The questions are many. But we are already able to come to some conclusions that will impact future planning for pharma, healthcare and life sciences companies.
A new normal for pharma, healthcare and life sciences
For now, all we know for certain is that there is still a lot we don’t yet know. The global ramifications of the crisis will certainly have long-term and far-reaching implications in all these areas:
1) Drug spend
COVID-19 means new ways of thinking for pharma on strategic decisions for sales, market access and operations.
On a macro-economic level, a global recession will mean reduced drug spend for pharma. This will mean prioritisation away from branded drugs and biologics to generic drugs and biosimilars.
Policies put in place as a result of the coronavirus have led to a reduction in sales rep activity to reduce personal contact. A shift by companies to less effective channels could impact sales too.
2) Drugs supply
The global interconnectedness of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) manufacturing has been put into sharp relief.
The pandemic has disrupted the global supply chain of APIs developed in China and sent to other drug companies. Indian generic manufacturers are particularly dependent on raw materials from China.
The global implications of supply chain disruptions starting in China affecting US and European drug companies are still unknown.
They may well mean less reliance ahead on China for APIs, as other countries fill gaps.
3) GTM Strategies
The Go-To-Market (GTM) strategy of reaching customers (HCPs, patients and pharmacists, etc) will have to change due to interaction restrictions.
More use of personalised and segmented digital marketing communications will be important ahead.
Given the disruption in prescriber engagement, companies will need to look hard at their marketing-mix analysis. Then determine their best resource allocation across channels for profit outcomes.
4) Launch innovation
COVID-19’s innovation impact is already here. It's set to be long term as regulators and health assessors and payers have had to slow their activities.
Companies will have to adapt to the fact that their launch plans can't be the same as pre-COVID.
Commercial approvals and launches will see a slow down, leading to pipeline blockages and off-target past assumptions.
Delays of scheduled clinical trials are inevitable. Many companies have already postponed and begun adapting their R&D plans. Many are prioritising COVID-related studies.
Globally, the top 20 Pharma companies report that they're delaying the start of new clinical trials and delaying ongoing ones. The welfare of new and existing trial patients poses ethical questions here. Even more so for the immune-compromised or those requiring a hospital setting.
The FDA and EMA have made it clear that clinical trial protocol modifications are likely to occur with trials affected by COVID-19. It’s not yet clear how these changes might affect future regulatory outcomes. The fast-tracking of potentially useful treatments is likely to be considered.
The virtual running of virtual (or hybrid) trials may be increased in value. Those companies able to pivot fast to harness data and analytics will be best placed to move to digital and remote site monitoring.
5) Shift to remote
Today’s shift towards more sophisticated remote engagement is likely not to be short-term. It will evolve into a longer-term solution as the pharma, healthcare and life sciences sectors adapt to and invest in new ways of working.
New technologies will need to be accessible and integrated into existing HCP infrastructure. They'll need compliance to GDPR requirements to leverage existing consent data and permissions.
The crisis has compelled patients and healthcare providers to look for different ways of maintaining a functioning healthcare system through the crisis. Looking ahead, it will certainly mean greater adoption of telehealth and other digital solutions. Hospital systems are already adopting new technologies, such as using AI for diagnosis and treatment and building integrated systems for sharing data and coordinating emergency responses.
Pharma will need to be looking fast to what’s going to be required to help remote teams in future. They'll need to think about the importance of change and culture management.
Much will hinge on the severity and length of the pandemic for strategy planning in today’s more fragmented and remote world.
6) Increased global healthcare systems spending
If there’s one positive that has come out of this ongoing pandemic, it’s this. The Covid-19 outbreak has revealed the cracks in global healthcare systems in terms of coverage, costs and quality.
The pandemic has thrown into sharp relief how vital it is to invest in redesigning the primary care system. Many national governments are already increasing investment and funding for primary and intensive care. A feeling of urgency and political pressure means more governments are diverting funding towards the areas that have fallen short during the pandemic.
Most countries reported that many routine and elective services have been postponed and critical care such as cancer screening and treatment and HIV therapy has seen high-risk delays in low-income countries.
The World Health Organization (WHO) published in August 2020 a survey on the impact of COVID-19 on health systems based on 105 countries’ reports. It showed that "almost every country (90%) experienced disruption to its health services, with low- and middle-income countries reporting the greatest difficulties".
"The survey shines a light on the cracks in our health systems, but it also serves to inform new strategies to improve healthcare provision during the pandemic and beyond,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. "COVID-19 should be a lesson to all countries that health is not an ‘either-or’ equation. We must better prepare for emergencies but also keep investing in health systems that fully respond to people’s needs throughout the life course."
7) Development of the potential of AI
A 2019 study covering 19 countries’ artificial intelligence healthcare markets estimated a 41.7% compound annual growth rate, from $1.3 billion in 2018 to $13 billion in 2025. The main growth areas were these: hospital workflow, wearables, medical imaging and diagnosis, therapy planning, virtual assistants, and, lastly but most significantly, drug discovery.
With the push that Covid-19 has given towards wider adoption of digital technologies, it’s likely it will accelerate those trends rapidly.
The global nature of COVID-19 means no country can be seen in isolation and that it will undeniably have significant outcomes for pharma, healthcare and life sciences ahead.
How great these changes will be is impossible to say. But one thing is certain. Across the board, many ways these industries will operate ahead will never be the same again.